Schneider February Poll Memo


M E M O R A N D U M 

To: Interested Parties

From: Jill Normington

Date: February 23, 2016

The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the Tenth Congressional District of Illinois. Interviews were conducted February 21-22, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Brad Schneider continues to dominate the Democratic Primary in Illinois’s Tenth Congressional District. Even after spending more than $500,000 on television, Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering has made little headway.

Schneider leads 53%-23% with just three weeks to go until primary day. He bests her among every constituency and in every region of the district. Among women, he leads 52%-26%. Among pro-choice voters, he leads 55%-24%. Among liberals, he leads 55%-23%.

Schneider’s lead is not simply a matter of superior name identification as it was last year. Rotering is no longer a complete unknown, having increased her name identification by 30 points, up to 55%. However, that increased recognition is not translating into vote as Rotering has gained a paltry five points in the last four months. At this late stage of the race, voters are more informed and they are still opting for Schneider.

Schneider has also increased his favorable rating. In the last four months, he has raised his already impressive favorable rating by eight points, up to 58%. He holds that rating across key constituency groups as well. Schneider boasts a favorable rating of 58% among women, 60% among pro-choice voters and 64% among liberals.