Schneider IL-10 Poll Memo


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To:Interested Parties

From:Jill Normington

Date:June 14, 2016

The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 400 likely voters in the Tenth Congressional District of Illinois.  Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones.  Interviews were conducted June 6-9, 2016.  The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

In the rematch contest for the 10th Congressional District of Illinois, Democratic challenger and former Congressman Brad Schneider is beating incumbent Republican Congressman Bob Dold, 47%-43%.

Not only is Dold trailing Schneider by four points, but other measures of Dold’s political support demonstrate that perceptions of him are either unchanged or falling.  Specifically:

  • Dold has a favorable rating of just 35%-29% with 82% name identification.  Moreover, this measurement of Dold’s popularity has not improved over the course of the last four years.  He is no better known nor well-liked now, despite all the advantages of incumbency.

  • Dold’s job rating is both tepid and declining.  Just 39% rate his performance as “excellent” or “good” while 33% rate his job as “not so good” or “poor.”  Throughout 2012 and 2014, Dold’s average job rating was 44%-33%.  This assessment of Dold’s effectiveness is both objectively low and getting worse.

Not only is Schneider already winning, but the political environment also favors him.  Specifically:

  • President Barack Obama remains hugely popular with a favorable rating of 56%-36% and a job rating of 57%-41%.  Both of these measures are better than in 2012 when Schneider first bested Dold.

  • Donald Trump is a serious albatross around the neck of Dold.  He is almost universally unpopular with a 25%-66% favorable rating.  Moreover, he is losing to Secretary Hillary Clinton 35%-53%.  At this point in 2012, Governor Mitt Romney was trailing 41%-55% to Obama.

Brad Schneider is well positioned to take advantage of the weakness of Congressman Dold and the Democratic nature of the 10th District and win back this seat.